On Tuesday, 19 September, the Defence Ministry of Azerbaijan announced the start of “anti-terrorist measures” on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, and surrounded by Azerbaijani lands, but the facto inhabited by Armenians and controlled by Pro-Yerevan forces. Baku began shelling the separatist region, demanding the withdrawal of Armenian troops and for the local government to vacate power. On the morning of Wednesday, 20 September, military operations go on and Azerbaijani forces continue to inflict significant damage to inferior Karakah troops. The government in Yerevan officially stated that it does not intend to fight a large war with Baku, giving up on actively attempting to defend the territory inhabited by over 120 thousand Armenians. Consequently, clashes broke out in the Armenian capital, with thousands of citizens demanding a forceful reaction by their government. The situation is calm, but more protests are expected. From an international perspective, the situation is very complicated. In fact, the Nagorno-Karabakh region is recognised as part of Azerbaijan by all UN members, including Armenia itself, which, however, has supported for 30 years its quasi-independent status. At the UN General Assembly, Recep Tayyip Erdogan shored up Baku’s efforts in its “anti-terrorist operation”. Russia, a historical ally of Armenia, cannot actively support it as it has entangled itself in the Ukraine war, and needs to balance relations with friendly Baku. The situation for the EU is tricky. In fact, while it recognises the sovereignty of Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, were Baku forces to commit grave crimes that capture public opinions internationally, it might impose sanctions. The US has limited interests in the region and it is calling for vague “peaceful solutions” to the conflict. Overall, Western diplomacy is likely to side with authoritarian Azerbaijan, fulfilling the principle of sovereignty and territorial integrity over the one of people’s self-determination.
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