Various social media reports have described a protest taking place near a French military base in the northern city of Faya-Largeau (Bourkou-Ennedi-Tibesti Region), Chad. Reports indicate that an altercation at a military hospital led to the fatality of a Chadian soldier at a medical facility located inside the base on Tuesday, 5 September.
Some reports stated that a French military soldier shot the Chadian in defence. At this time, there has been no corroboration of the events that have preceded these demonstrations. The French and Chadian governments have not made any official statements on these events.
These reported developments are taking place at a particularly sensitive period in the region, especially after recent coups in Gabon (Aug. 2023) and Niger (Jul. 2023) that were preceded by coups in Burkina Faso (Jan. 2022), Sudan (Oct 2021), and Guinea (Sep 2021). Even Chad went through its own regime change in April 2021, when the Chadian army took over after President Idriss Deby was killed during a visit to the northern insurgency.
While each of these coups have their own unique nuances, they have generated a significant amount of geopolitical tension and created an arch of instability opening up spaces for encroaching Islamist insurgency and terrorist organisations. The coup in Niger has particular salience given that it was a major player in counter-terrorism efforts supported by France and some of its Western allies.
The abrupt changes in Niger have placed an indefinite pause in counter-terrorism cooperation and forced the junta-led administration to recalibrate its relations with foreign governments. Subsequent sanctions by France and the EU have generated strong anti-Western sentiments, potentially forcing the Nigerian government to reorient its foreign policy relations towards Russia and allow for Wagner Group-types to dilute or dislodge the French and US security presence.
In Chad, should these recently reported events deteriorate further relations with France and the West, it will likely pave the way for more instability and uncertainty in the short-term, and elevate competition for influence detrimental to French and Western interests.
Organisations with interests in Chad are advised to monitor developments for any escalation trigger points impacting operational plans.
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